[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031910
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031910 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-032145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 PM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN...NERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 031910Z - 032145Z

ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WW NOT
ANTICIPATED.

MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES EWD ALONG CANADIAN / U.S. BORDER. 
MEANWHILE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF COLD FRONT HAVE RISEN INTO
THE LOWER 80S F.  MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 2000 J/KG AS A
RESULT.

AREA VWPS INDICATE WEAK AND UNIDIRECTIONALLY WLY WIND FIELDS IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW OVER FAR NWRN MN / NERN ND
WHERE MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS EXISTS.  SHORT
HODOGRAPHS WITH NEGLIGIBLE LOW LEVEL HELICITY IN THESE AREAS ARE NOT
VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE
RATES ALOFT AND RESULTANT LARGE VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS...A FEW
STORMS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN STRONG ENOUGH UPDRAFTS FOR SOME SEVERE
HAIL.  UPPER LEVEL FLOW APPROACHING 50 KTS MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER
ORGANIZATION WITH TIME OVER EXTREME NERN ND / NWRN MN NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER.  IF THIS OCCURS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL.  OVERALL MEAN WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE
ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KTS SO SEVERE WIND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
OF PARTICULAR CONCERN.

..JEWELL.. 07/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

48519377 47519434 46229526 45159644 45219868 45970020
47370049 49009993 49009516 49409513 49339483 48769469 

WWWW