[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030819 
ARZ000-OKZ000-031045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1480
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0319 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK/WRN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 030819Z - 031045Z

INTENSE TSTMS CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD ACROSS NERN OK EARLY TODAY. AN
ISOLD LARGE HAIL OR STRONG WIND EVENT IS PSBL AS WELL AS VERY HEAVY
RAIN. NO WATCH IS BEING ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL AND SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG SRN EDGE OF LINEAR MCS FROM NRN MCINTOSH AND
MUSKOGEE COUNTIES IN ERN OK ESEWD TO NRN SCOTT AND YELL COUNTIES IN
WRN AR. RECENT NLY WIND GUST TO 40KT WAS REPORTED BEHIND THE OUTFLOW
AT FSM. STRONG LOW LEVEL MASS INFLOW ACROSS ERN OK COUPLED WITH
MODEST WNWLY MEAN LAYER FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR UPWIND
PROPAGATION OF CELLULAR ELEMENTS ALONG THE WRN END OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THE LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH IN
THE WAKE OF THE OUTFLOW ACROSS WRN AR. UPDRAFTS IN OK WILL BE IN
BETTER PROXIMITY TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AND A COUPLE
WIND/HAIL EVENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN LIMITED COMPARED TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCAL FLASH FLOODING
FROM TRAINING/BACKBUILDING CONVECTION.

..CARBIN.. 07/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

35049402 34369408 34039447 34149535 34499582 34899605
35259616 35669617 35909613 36139584 

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