[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 030601
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030601 
OKZ000-TXZ000-030730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1479
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT SAT JUL 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX...SWRN TO ERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 030601Z - 030730Z

RAPID STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN OK
AND NWRN TX MAY REQUIRE A SEVERE TSTM WATCH SHORTLY.

TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED RAPIDLY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEVELOPING SEWD
INTO VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ
ACROSS SWRN OK EARLY TODAY. NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP INCREASING SWLY
LLJ WAS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY FROM
THIS ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS/DEVELOPS ESEWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. FURTHERMORE...THE OUTFLOW INTERSECTS THE LARGER SCALE FRONTAL
ZONE/WIND SHIFT ACROSS NCNTRL OK WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
CONTINUING ALONG LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM NERN OK INTO THE
OZARKS. STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE/BACKBUILD ACROSS PARTS OF
ERN OK THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE
MONITORED FOR A PSBL WATCH.

..CARBIN.. 07/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...LUB...AMA...

34419539 34159671 34029818 33909888 34800049 35409901
36249790 36329509 35209488 

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