[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 270558
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270557 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-271100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2583
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST SUN DEC 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CT/RI/ERN MA/SERN NH/ERN ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW AND NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS 

VALID 270557Z - 271100Z

HEAVY SNOW RATES NEAR 1-2"/HR WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND/CAPE COD AND COASTAL ME. IN
ADDITION...SUSTAINED SFC WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH MUCH HIGHER GUSTS
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WILL CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT.

RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IS ONGOING S OF NOVA SCOTIA WITH 3-4 MB/HR
PRESSURE FALLS NOTED FROM LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS. WITH A NEARLY
1040 MB ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY...THIS IS
CREATING A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 50 KT SFC WINDS
REPORTED AT SOME BUOY LOCATIONS. LATEST VAD WIND PROFILER DATA FROM
BOSTON SHOWS 50 KT AROUND 1 KM...SO MAIN CONCERN FOR OVERNIGHT WILL
BE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALONG WITH HEAVY SNOW. AT LEAST 6-8" OF
SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN...WITH SEVERAL MORE INCHES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. 

LONG RADAR LOOP FROM LAST 8 HOURS OR SO SUGGESTS HEAVIEST SNOW IS
ENDING FOR LONG ISLAND...WITH HEAVIEST SNOW BAND NOW EXTENDING FROM
CAPE COD TO JUST EAST OF BHB. ALTHOUGH THIS AXIS MAY REMAIN A BIT
OFFSHORE...IT CERTAINLY APPEARS THAT HEAVY SNOW RATES OF 1-2"/HR
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF E COASTAL ME. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
650-750 MB LAYER SEEMS TO BE WELL CORRELATED TO AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW
ON RADAR...AND THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. LATEST RUC
GUIDANCE INDICATES SNOW RATES UP TO 2"/HR POSSIBLE ASSUMING A 10:1
RATIO...AND THE RATIO WILL ACTUALLY BE LARGER THAN THAT GIVEN ARCTIC
TEMPERATURES.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ENDING BETWEEN 09-12Z...BUT STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE MORNING CREATING DANGEROUS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW AND/OR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

..TAYLOR.. 12/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX...

45396755 44177003 42837194 40847292 40777166 41156991
42716885 43396821 44076771 44966669 

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