[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 281248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281248 
CAZ000-281645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2584
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST TUE DEC 28 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SIERRA NEVADA OF CA...ABOVE 5500 FT

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 281248Z - 281645Z

HEAVY SNOW RATES TO 2"/HR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SRN SIERRA NEVADA
OF CA DURING THE 15-21Z PERIOD. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY TO
BETWEEN 5500-6000 FT WITH ONSET OF HEAVY SNOW.

AT 12Z...WV IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN
LARGE...SLOW-MOVING TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST AND 110-120KT 300MB JET
EXIT REGION ACROSS NRN BAJA CA AND FAR SRN CA. STRONG CLOUD TOP
COOLING IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE SRN SIERRA MTNS. FRONTAL PRECIPITATION
BAND EXTENDING FROM THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY SWD ACROSS THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND INTO THE L.A. BASIN WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EWD
INTO THE SRN SIERRA MTNS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THROUGH
21Z...700MB FLOW OF 30-35KT GRADUALLY VEERS TO SWLY WHICH WILL
STRENGTHEN OROGRAPHIC LIFTING ON WRN SLOPES. PRESENCE OF 700-500MB
LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM AND AMPLE MOISTURE SHOULD FAVOR EMBEDDED
CONVECTIVE SNOW WITH SNOW RATES UP TO 2"/HR LIKELY WITH CORE OF
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND. ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM 28/06Z RUN
INDICATE SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL SLOWLY TO BETWEEN 5500-6000 FT
THROUGH 21Z...WITH LOWEST SNOW LEVELS LIKELY IN BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION AND STRONGEST OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT.

..BANACOS.. 12/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...

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