[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 262036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262035 
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-270230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2582
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 PM CST SUN DEC 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LONG ISLAND / SERN CT / RI / SERN MA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 262035Z - 270230Z

SNOW RATES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH EVENING.  SNOWFALL RATES
AROUND 1 IN/HR WILL BE LIKELY...WITH HIGHER RATES OVER RI AND SERN
MA.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABRUPT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE BETWEEN ARCTIC
AIR MASS INLAND AND WARM ELY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.  DEPTH OF WARM
AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER SHALLOW AS FORECAST BY LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS...WITH LAPSE RATES COOLING RAPIDLY ABOVE THIS LAYER.

FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BETWEEN 700-600 MB WILL PERSIST AND
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RUC MODEL SUGGESTING PRECIPITATION
WILL EXPAND NWWD INTO CT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT THIS LIFTING
ZONE TO BE COINCIDENT WITH FAVORABLE TEMPERATURE RANGE FOR DENDRITIC
GROWTH...THUS MDT TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED. THE HEAVIEST
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 22-02Z FOR ERN LONG ISLAND...ERN
CT...NEWD TOWARD BOSTON.  FARTHER SE...HEAVIER SNOW RATES ARE
ALREADY MATERIALIZING OVER RI AND PORTIONS OF SERN MA AROUND
TAUNTON.  RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW FARTHER E OVER THE CAPE
WHERE SURFACE WARM LAYER EXISTS...DUE TO COOLING FROM ABOVE AS
FROZEN PRECIPITATION FALLS.

..JEWELL.. 12/26/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

40777269 41257267 41517248 41987156 42417101 42287089
42237076 41967058 41837044 42117026 42177017 41766987
41656994 41387047 40987193 

WWWW