[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131801 
INZ000-MIZ000-132200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2538
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1201 PM CST MON DEC 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SW LOWER MI/FAR NCNTRL IN

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 131801Z - 132200Z

ORGANIZED BAND OF MDT/OCNLY HVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT SSWWD ACROSS VAN BUREN/KALAMAZOO/CASS/ST. JOSEPH/ERN
BERRIEN COUNTIES OF SW LOWER MI...AND ST. JOSEPH/ELKHART/WRN
LAGRANGE COUNTIES OF NCNTRL IN THROUGH 00Z. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-1.5
IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LATEST SFC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS SFC TROUGH AXIS/WIND SHIFT
TRANSITIONING SWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...ROUGHLY INVOF OF I-96/I-94
CORRIDOR AT 18Z. ALONG/BEHIND THIS TROUGH...A NW SHIFT IN THE SFC
WINDS HAS YIELDED A MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL NNW FLOW REGIME IN THE
LOWEST FEW KM...RESULTING IN AN ORGANIZED LES BAND FROM NEAR BIV
/HOLLAND/ TO AZO /KALAMAZOO/. AS SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
SWD...BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW EXPECTED TO ALSO SHIFT SSWWD ACROSS FAR
SW LOWER MI AND FAR NCNTRL IN. THIS SCENARIO IS IN ACCORDANCE WITH
15Z RUC AND EXPERIMENTAL 4KM WRF GUIDANCE.

ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED THIS
AFTERNOON...15Z RUC POINT FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE DENDRITIC
LAYER WILL BE MAINTAINED NEAR TOP OF INVERSION AT AROUND 6-6.5K FT.
THUS POSSIBILITY FOR SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS 1-1.5 IN/HR WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

..GUYER.. 12/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...

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