[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 131912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131912 
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-132315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2539
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 PM CST MON DEC 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...OH/PA/NY LAKE SHORE OF LAKE ERIE

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 131912Z - 132315Z

MDT/OCNLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INVOF FAR NE OH/NW PA/WRN NY ERIE LAKE SHORE...DEVELOPING
SWD AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE OWING TO ONSET OF NWLY BOUNDARY
LAYER TRAJECTORIES BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES AS HIGH AS
1.5-2.0 HR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AMIDST CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY...FETCH OF STRONG W/SW WINDS
CURRENTLY MAINTAINING MDT/OCNLY HEAVY LES IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF
LAKE ERIE SHORE FROM FAR NE OH INTO CHAUTAUQUA/ERIE COUNTIES OF NY.
HOWEVER WITH PASSAGE OF LOW LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS FAR SW
ONTARIO/NRN LAKE ERIE...15Z RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TRANSITION TO NWLY
/APPROX 320 DEG/ LOW LEVEL FLOW BY 21Z-23Z FROM NE OH INTO ERIE LAKE
SHORE OF NY. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD YIELD A WWD DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION
OF HEAVIER SNOW ACROSS CUYAHOGA/LORAIN COUNTIES OF OH THROUGH
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE ALSO SPREADING INCREASED SNOWFALL SWD
INTO AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKE ERIE SHORE.

..GUYER.. 12/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

42467936 42437907 42057932 41787976 41578004 41288076
41248119 41278204 41478203 41818119 42088012 42307961 

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