[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 110616
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110615 
MEZ000-NHZ000-111015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2537
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NRN ME...AND FAR NRN NH

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 110615Z - 111015Z

WINTRY MIX WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR NRN NH AND MUCH OF INTERIOR ME
THROUGH 13Z. MOSTLY SNOW IS EXPECTED NEAR PQI/CAR AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF NWRN ME. SNOW WILL CHANGE TO SLEET IN A BAND FROM SRN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WSWWD THROUGH CENTRAL SOMERSET AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES DURING 9-11Z TIME PERIOD. FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN IS LIKELY
WITH MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
INTERIOR ME.

SYNOPTICALLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE...SLOW MOVING 500MB LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MIGRATE NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY. A WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WITH A LONG FETCH FROM THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO NNEWD ALONG THE
EAST COAST IS EVIDENT...WITH A DRY SLOT EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINA
PIEDMONT NEWD INTO THE CT RIVER VALLEY. SFC MAP AT 05Z INDICATES
DOUBLE-BARREL SURFACE LOW WITH SECONDARY CENTER STRENGTHENING JUST
SOUTH OF NYC. WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM LONG ISLAND TO CAPE COD
WITH A MESOSCALE COASTAL FRONT FROM CAPE ANN NEWD ALONG THE ME
COAST. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NRN ME THROUGH SRN NH
ASSOCIATED WITH WEDGE OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES LOCKED IN PLACE
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.

SURFACE LOW SHOULD TRACK NEWD TO NEAR PWM BY 12Z...WITH SIGNIFICANT
850-700MB WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO MID-MORNING ACROSS MUCH  OF ME AND NRN
NH. LOW TRACK SHOULD YIELD LIGHT NELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ME MAINTAINING SHALLOW SUB-FREEZING LAYER NEAR
THE SFC THROUGH 13Z. INCREASING PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE NOTED IN
MOSAIC RADAR REFLECTIVITY ACROSS NERN MA AND THE GULF OF
ME...ASSOCIATED WITH 140KT 300MB JET WHICH IS MOVING RAPIDLY NEWD
INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD BECOME FOCUSED
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN ME DURING THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS.

THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS FAR NRN ME INCLUDING
CENTRAL/NRN AROOSTOOK COUNTY...THE ALLAGASH...AND  ADJACENT NWRN
MTNS. THE 00Z ETA DEVELOPS SIGNIFICANT WARMING ALOFT WITH +6C AT BGR
BY 09Z NEAR 825MB. ONGOING ZR WILL CHANGE TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH MIXED SLEET/ZR ZONE MIGRATING NWD TO MLT BY 09Z AND HUL
BY 11Z. STRONG AXIS OF 700MB DEFORMATION ON NRN EDGE OF WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT 1"/HR SNOW RATES ACROSS FAR NRN ME FOR
SEVERAL HOURS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 08-12Z BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

..BANACOS.. 12/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

47456926 47426851 47266814 46966786 45436773 44946837
44766881 44336971 44177042 44207082 44377101 44527123
44607126 44827133 45167111 45637065 46576998 

WWWW