[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 110107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110106 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-110500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2536
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NY/NRN VT/NRN NH INTO NRN ME

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 110106Z - 110500Z

MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z FROM
ADIRONDACK MTNS OF NY INTO NRN VT/NRN NH...WITH SNOW INCREASING
ACROSS NW ME AFTER 03Z.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING EWD ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY...AS ATTENDANT 997 MB SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NEWD
ACROSS WRN PA/DELMARVA AREA. DPVA AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COMBINED
WITH EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION/BROAD PRECIP SHIELD FROM ERN NY INTO NEW ENGLAND.
OWING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF CYCLONE...LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL BUT UPSTATE
NY/VT/NH/ME FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

ACROSS NE NY AND NRN VT/NH...21Z RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS PORTRAY A
LOSS OF SEEDER FEEDER/FAVORABLE DENDRITIC PROFILES BY 04Z-06Z OWING
TO APPROACHING DRY SLOT AHEAD OF CYCLONE. THIS SUGGESTS DIMINISHING
PRECIP RATES AND LOSS OF ICE INTRODUCTION AFTER APPROX 04Z...LIKELY
LEADING TO FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW.

FURTHER NE...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE ACROSS NE ME THIS
EVENING AS INITIALLY DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS /E.G. 00Z CAR RAOB/
BECOME EFFECTIVELY SATURATED. LOW/MID LEVEL PROFILES HAVE REMAINED
COLDER ACROSS NW ME...WITH PRECIPITATION RATES LIKELY TO FURTHER
ENHANCED BY INCREASING MID LEVEL /800MB-600MB/ EAST-WEST
FRONTOGENETICAL COMPONENT. AFTER 03Z...SNOW RATES MAY APPROACH 1
IN/HR ACROSS NW ME FOR A FEW HOURS DURATION.

..GUYER.. 12/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...

44997333 44997232 45027153 45337104 45577062 46127011
46066972 45946941 45226937 44756964 44307047 43877142
43907289 43977462 44927466 

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