[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 101753
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101753 
TNZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-102000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2535
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN...NE AL...NRN GA...WRN NC

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS/SEVERE POTENTIAL 

VALID 101753Z - 102000Z

TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.  GENERAL SEVERE THREAT STILL
APPEARS MARGINAL...AND A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY  ANTICIPATED.

INCREASING/DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EVIDENT IN LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGERY ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. SURFACE TEMPERATURE RISES ARE SLOW DUE TO
ONGOING LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...BUT LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
INDICATES STRONGER MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING
TO CAPE UP TO 500 J/KG FOR MOST UNSTABLE SURFACE PARCELS.  MIXED
LAYER CAPE IS STILL ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 250 J/KG OR SO...BUT SHOULD
INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING AND INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM TROUGH.

TRENDS WILL BE FOR SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET AXIS TO CONTINUE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
UPPER TROUGH AXIS  PROGRESSES EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 
HOWEVER...SHEAR PROFILES ON THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RISK
FOR HAIL IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 
EXPERIMENTAL HAIL ALGORITHM RUN ON LATEST MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS SOME RISK FOR HAIL APPROACHING THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST GEORGIA...AND AREAS OF TENNESSEE BETWEEN
CHATTANOOGA/KNOXVILLE.

..KERR.. 12/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

34418480 34508564 34898604 35408596 35958534 36568386
36418284 35138349 

WWWW