[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 101613
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101612 
VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-101645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2534
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101612Z - 101645Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT.  A SLIGHT RISK IS BEING ADDED TO UPCOMING 1630Z OUTLOOK.

ALTHOUGH HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EAST...
AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT...SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE STILL IN THE
UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ACROSS THE UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN/
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  AS MID-LEVEL COLD POOL
/WITH COLDEST 500 MB TEMPS AOB -25C/ IN BASE OF APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH OVERSPREADS REGION THIS AFTERNOON...DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY.  MIXED
LAYER CAPE COULD EXCEED 500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT...ASSOCIATED WITH OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...SUPPORTIVE OF FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS
THE WESTERN/SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON...
DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY DEEPENING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE...WITH A FEW
UPDRAFTS VIGOROUS ENOUGH FOR HAIL EXCEEDING SEVERE LIMITS IN
FAVORABLY COOL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

..KERR.. 12/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...

37458327 37988121 37658016 36208048 35188174 34188340
34058617 34838635 36138604 37118472 

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