[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 101141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101141 
FLZ000-GAZ000-101415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2533
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0541 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101141Z - 101415Z

BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS IS FCST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS NRN FL PENINSULA
THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z...AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT.  BRIEF SPIN-UP OF
DAMAGING BOW OR SUPERCELL TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THREAT
APPEARS LIMITED ENOUGH IN SPACE AND TIME THAT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED
ATTM.

SFC FLOW HAS VEERED ACROSS THIS AREA...REDUCING CONVERGENCE SOMEWHAT
AND ALSO REDUCING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR CONTRIBUTION TO LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPH SIZE.  THIS TREND IS FCST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDMORNING
GIVEN RETREAT OF STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC FORCING AWAY FROM
REGION...ACROSS TIDEWATER/MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...FOR
ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS THERE REMAINS ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT SUPERCELL/BOW POTENTIAL.  DESPITE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
FLOW...JAX VWP SUPPORTS 0-1 KM SRH 200-300 J/KG FOR ANY TSTMS MOVING
20-30 DEG RIGHTWARD OF MEAN WIND...OR JUST N OF DUE E. ONE CAVEAT
MAY BE SFC-BASED CINH ESTIMATED TO BE STRONGER THAN FARTHER N OVER
WW 920...BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS SHOWING 500-800 M AGL MOST
UNSTABLE LIFTED PARCEL.  EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO DIMINISH WITH
PASSAGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND AND WITH TIME AS CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN.

..EDWARDS.. 12/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

29688346 30378241 30738195 30738150 30538137 29818128
29008165 28698245 29178315 

WWWW