[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 101119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101118 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-101315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2532
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0518 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ERN NC...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN VA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 921...

VALID 101118Z - 101315Z

BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW AREA
INTO FAVORABLY SHEARED/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIR...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL...DAMAGING GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

ALTHOUGH WARM SECTOR SFC FLOW HAS VEERED SOMEWHAT...HODOGRAPHS
REMAIN QUITE LONG AND STILL SUPPORT 0-1 KM AGL SRH AOA 200 J/KG IN
MANY AREAS.  ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY IN WARM SECTOR IS COMPUTED WITH
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LIFTED PARCEL -- 250-500 M AGL -- ENOUGH SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY IS EVIDENT THAT TORNADO THREAT PROBABLY EXISTS WITH ANY
SUSTAINED AND/OR INTENSE LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WHICH DEVELOP. 

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED E ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF SERN
VA...INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS REGION...SUBSTANTIALLY STABILIZING
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS BEHIND IT AND REDUCING THREAT FOR SEVERE
FROM SFC-BASED TSTMS IN THAT AREA.  GIVEN PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND PRECIP ONGOING BEHIND IT...SFC AIR MASS RECOVERY IS NOT
EXPECTED AND TORNADO THREAT OVER VA PORTION WW HAS DIMINISHED
MARKEDLY.  HOWEVER..GIVEN ELEVATED MUCAPES 1000-1500 J/KG BASED ON
MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINING FAVORABLE FOR
STORM ROTATION ALOFT...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL PERSISTS WITH TSTMS
MOVING NEWD BEHIND LEADING OUTFLOW EDGE.

..EDWARDS.. 12/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...

34807674 34808019 36937714 36937385 

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