[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 101101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101100 
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-101300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2531
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0500 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN GA...SRN/ERN SC...SERN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 920...

VALID 101100Z - 101300Z

BROKEN BAND OF STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS -- OCCASIONALLY CONTAINING
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL OR SMALL BOW -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS
WW TOWARD ATLANTIC COASTLINE.  CUMULATIVE LINEAR COLD POOL GENERATED
BY STORMS WITHIN BAND MAY FORCE SOME ACCELERATION OF CONVECTIVE LINE
AS A WHOLE DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...MOVING LEADING EDGE OFFSHORE
BEFORE WW EXPIRES.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR...WW MAY BE CANCELED BEFORE
SCHEDULED 14Z EXPIRATION.  MEANWHILE...INFLOW SECTOR REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE...AND WW SHOULD BE CONTINUED ALONG/AHEAD OF
THIS BAND.

AIR MASS REMAINS FAVORABLY SHEARED WITH REGIONAL VWP SHOWING 150-300
J/KG SRH THROUGH 0-1 KM AGL LAYER.  MODIFIED RUC FCST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES 6-7 DEG C/KM ARE WIDESPREAD
OVER WARM SECTOR.  THIS COMBINES WITH DEW POINTS IN MID-UPPER 60S F
IN LOWEST 1 KM AGL TO SUPPORT MUCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG.  WHILE
STRONGEST CAPES ARE DERIVED USING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LIFTED PARCEL --
AROUND 500 M AGL -- THERE IS STILL ENOUGH SFC-BASED INSTABILITY TO
JUSTIFY MAINTAINING TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SUSTAINED AND/OR INTENSE
LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WHICH DEVELOP.  POSSIBLE TORNADO WITH INJURY
WAS REPORTED 10Z CALHOUN COUNTY SC.

..EDWARDS.. 12/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

30708169 30698474 34798056 34787737 

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