[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 100711
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100711 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-SCZ000-NCZ000-100815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2530
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0111 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN GA...SRN/ERN SC...SERN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 918...919...

VALID 100711Z - 100815Z

EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL...INCLUDING POSSIBILITY OF SUPERCELLS WITH A
FEW TORNADOES...TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EWD ACROSS REMAINDER WW AREAS. 
THREAT MAY EXTEND EWD ACROSS REMAINDER SRN GA NEWD TO PARTS OF ERN
NC DURING NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WWS LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED TO
INCLUDE THOSE AREAS.  MEANWHILE...CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS PRESENT
WWS UNTIL CLEARED OR REPLACED.

SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER NWRN SC WITH WARM FRONT
ENEWD TO BETWEEN RIC-ORF...AND STATIONARY FRONT WSWWD ACROSS CSG
AREA.  CONFLUENCE LINE IS EVIDENT FROM SFC LOW SSWWD ACROSS
S-CENTRAL GA TO APALACHEE BAY. EXPECT THIS CONFLUENCE LINE TO MOVE
ENEWD ACROSS REMAINDER ERN GA INTO WRN SC...GIVEN LOCATION OF
STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS FROM N OF AGS TO ERN NC.  HODOGRAPHS SHOULD
BE LARGEST E OF CONFLUENCE LINE WHERE SFC FLOW IS MORE BACKED...WITH
0-1 KM AGL SRH 200-300 J/KG BEING COMMON.  DEEPER LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
REMAIN FAVORABLE AS WELL...WITH 0-6 KM SHEARS 50-60 KT.  WEAK
SFC-BASED CINH IS INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF REGION BECAUSE OF
DIABATIC COOLING...HOWEVER THIS EFFECT IS QUITE SHALLOW AND OFFSET
TO A LARGE DEGREE BY COMBINATION OF DOWNWARD MIXING AND BOUNDARY
LAYER THETAE ADVECTION.  PRIND ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WILL CARRY
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES GIVEN LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND NEAR
SFC-BASED INSTABILITY.

..EDWARDS.. 12/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...RAH...ILM...GSP...BMX...AKQ...MHX...

30628348 30638560 32868430 32868207 

33458022 32238513 33818513 35028024 

34798019 34977950 36437683 35907621 35277626 34717687
33997798 33307915 32647997 31888083 30798153 30688256
30828328 31268304 32818210 33048187 33488024 

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