[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 100634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100634 
MAZ000-NHZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-101030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2529
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1234 AM CST FRI DEC 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF VT/SWRN NH AND WRN MA

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 100634Z - 101030Z

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW RATES TO REACH 1"/HR ABOVE 1000
FEET ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF VT/NH AND WRN MA. IN
ADDITION...SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE 12Z ACROSS
WRN MA.

LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE RACING NORTHEAST WITH MAIN
CIRCULATION NOW APPROACHING BGM. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION NOW FALLING FROM ROCHESTER NY TO NEAR
HYANNIS...WITH ALL OF THIS IN THE FORM OF RAIN. LARGE AREA OF
500-700 MB UPWARD MOTION WILL SPREAD FROM SW TO NE OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS...AND ETA/RUC QPF FORECASTS SUGGEST HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL EXTEND FROM ERN NY/MA/SRN VT AND NH THROUGH 12Z. GIVEN STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION WHICH WILL BE OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS...THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE RAIN...CHANGING TO SNOW OR
SLEET BY MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS.

PROFILE IS NEARLY ISOTHERMAL PER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM ALBANY
NY...WITH JUST A SHALLOW WARM LAYER /ABOVE FREEZING/ IN THE LOWEST
2000-2500 FEET AGL. ABOVE THAT LAYER THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUPPORTS
ALL SNOW. MAIN CONCERN FOR WRN MA THEN IS PRECIPITATION TYPE. RECENT
SFC OBS AT ORE/AFN HAVE RECENTLY CHANGED TO SNOW WITH A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW AT ORH. AS STRONG WAA CONTINUES OVERNIGHT...POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW BETWEEN 06Z-09Z...AFTER WHICH
TIME DRYING/WARMING AT MID LEVELS WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE BY 12Z. 

OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT FROM THE GREEN MTNS IN WRN VT MAY SUPPORT
SNOW RATES INCRG TO 1"/HR FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PROFILES WILL REMAIN COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH 09-10Z...WITH SATURATED DENDRITIC ZONE FAVORING ALL SNOW.

..TAYLOR.. 12/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 00-01 UTC...
06-07 UTC...12-13 UTC...AND 18-19 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28.

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

44317300 43837312 43077319 42257329 42027285 42017211
42147157 42497148 42917196 43447207 44107194 44427215
44467253 

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