[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 100507
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100507 
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-100630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2528
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 PM CST THU DEC 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL GA INTO CNTRL SC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 918...

VALID 100507Z - 100630Z

THROUGH 06Z...GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEARS TO
BE FROM AROUND MCN NEWD INTO UPSTATE SC /N OF AGS/.

AS OF 0450Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MAJORITY OF INITIAL
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG/N OF WARM FRONT FROM NERN GA INTO NWRN SC
AND INTO CNTRL NC. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE
INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM NE OF MCN SWWD INTO SWRN
GA. LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS INDICATE THAT
THESE STORMS ARE FORMING WITHIN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS /I.E.
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S/ WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND
 1000 J/KG. CURRENT VWP FROM CNTRL GA CONTINUES TO INDICATE VERY
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH
0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 200-250 M2/S2. 

GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR...IT
APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH
06Z WILL BE IN A CORRIDOR FROM MCN NEWD TO NW OR N OF AGS.
ELSEWHERE...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL EXIST WITH STORMS
INTERACTING WITH WARM FRONT OVER NWRN SC. HOWEVER...ORIENTATION OF
WARM FRONT TO OBSERVED STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT RESIDENCE TIME
WITHIN FAVORABLE REGION OF FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN SHORT.

..MEAD.. 12/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...

33818517 35028022 33438022 32238518 

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