[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 100348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100348 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-100515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2527
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0948 PM CST THU DEC 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN INTO CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 100348Z - 100515Z

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS WW
AREA. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.

AS OF 0330Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WRB/ABY SWWD TO NEAR PFN IN THE FL PNHDL. AMBIENT AIR
MASS REMAINS WARM AND MOIST WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG/ AND A
RELATIVELY WEAK CAP. INSPECTION OF WATER VAPOR LOOP SUGGESTS THAT
LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY IS LIKELY AIDING IN THIS INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LOCAL VWPS WITHIN THIS REGION REMAIN QUITE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEAR/0-1 KM SRH OF 50-60
KTS/150-250 M2/S2 RESPECTIVELY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED AND IF IT APPEARS THAT ONGOING STORMS ARE BECOMING
TRULY ROOTED IN BOUNDARY-LAYER...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

..MEAD.. 12/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

32208494 32658269 32278253 31648282 30698405 30538453
30748526 31248527 

WWWW