[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 100015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100015 
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-100145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2526
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CST THU DEC 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AL EWD INTO UPSTATE SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 100015Z - 100145Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND LDS DATA
INDICATE AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF
CNTRL/E-CNTRL AL EWD TO NEAR ATL AREA. 00Z BHM/FFC SOUNDINGS AND RUC
ANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WHERE MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. THE
WRN MOST TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED ERN EDGE OF
LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MS.
MEANWHILE...LOCAL VWPS SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY OVER GA IS LIKELY BEING
FORCED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA ACTING ON THE WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS. AS
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD
TONIGHT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM
PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL AL EWD INTO UPSTATE SC. 

STRONG SPEED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH 60-7O KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
TRANSLATING ACROSS REGION WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. FORECAST STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT
DEVELOPMENT INVOF OF WARM FRONT FROM NRN GA INTO N-CNTRL SC WILL
QUICKLY BECOME ELEVATED ABOVE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING FARTHER S IN WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE A GREATER
POTENTIAL OF REMAINING SURFACE-BASED.

..MEAD.. 12/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...

33308556 33828524 34148297 34188162 33988117 33338103
32848221 32688433 32628525 

WWWW