[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091624 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-091830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1024 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PNHDL...SE AL...SW GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091624Z - 091830Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND
POSSIBILITY OF WW.

AS INITIAL IMPULSE LIFTS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO LIFT
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AREA LATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
JET AXIS TRAILS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF COAST...AND
CONFLUENT BAND NEAR THIS AXIS HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR STRENGTHENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO.

CELLS HAVE BEEN INCREASING WEST OF PENSACOLA FL INTO THE
DOTHAN/OZARK AL AREA...ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE RIDGE...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE
EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS THIS OCCURS...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY
INCREASE...WITH SHEAR PROFILES STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS IN
ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN EXCESS
OF 500 J/KG.

AN ISOLATED TORNADO APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR/NORTH OF PANAMA CITY INTO
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ALABAMA/SOUTHWEST GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
 OTHERWISE...A FEW STORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

..KERR.. 12/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...

30278599 31028601 31718585 32288524 32818474 32418424
31728411 31198423 30588439 29978521 29428573 28898650
29798612