[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091346 
ALZ000-091515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2524
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS AND AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 916...

VALID 091346Z - 091515Z

RECENT STORM RELATIVE MOTION PRODUCTS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPORADIC LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS... PRIMARILY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF A SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW OVER NCNTRL AL.  WARM SECTOR
HAS SPREAD NWD TO THE LOW LEVEL COLD WEDGE ENTRENCHED ACROSS NERN AL
AND NWRN GA.  LOW LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS THE STRONGEST MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF A KBHM-SELMA LINE AND THE KBHM VWP SUGGESTS A 302 M2/S2
0-1KM SRH USING A STORM MOTION OF 240/40.  TO THE WEST OF THIS
LINE...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED CONSIDERABLY.  THUS...THE
HIGHEST THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES HAS SHIFTED EWD INTO ERN PARTS OF
THE WW.

MAIN BRANCH OF THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NWD INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE MORNING AS UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH EJECTS
NEWD.  THE RESULT WILL BE A RELAXING OF THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH
TIME AND THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH WATCH
EXPIRATION.

EVENTUALLY...THE BROAD BAND OF TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO OUTRUN THE
STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS THIS MORNING.  THIS IN COMBINATION WITH
THE TRANSLATION OF STRONGER WIND FIELDS NWD ATOP THE COLDER AIR WILL
LIKELY SIGNAL A DECREASE IN THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH TIME.

..RACY.. 12/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...

31598838 32438836 33868610 31878628 

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