[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091205
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091204 
ALZ000-MSZ000-091330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2523
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0604 AM CST THU DEC 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MS AND CNTRL AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 916...

VALID 091204Z - 091330Z

RADAR MOSAIC AND MESOANALYSIS DEPICT THE SUB-SYNOPTIC LOW ON THE
AL/MS BORDER 30NE OF KMEI.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH CNTRL AL
AND NEAR/NW OF KBHM 14-15Z.  TSTMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS WRN AL.  THESE
CELLS...ALONG WITH THE TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...WILL HAVE THE
HIGHEST TORNADIC POTENTIAL AS THEY MOVE 240/40.  THAT STORM MOTION
ON THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED HODOGRAPH AT KBHM GIVES A SRH AOA 325
MS/S2. THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE LOW MIGRATES NEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT INTO
CNTRL AL.  OTHERWISE... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT...ESPECIALLY
AS CELLS MATURE AND POTENTIALLY BOW.

MEANWHILE...TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF
THE BROAD ZONE OF CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MS WHERE RUC SOUNDINGS
SHOW MUCAPE LINGERING IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.  THESE STORMS MAY
CAUSE GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS HAIL...BUT THE FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN
APPEARS TO BE DISRUPTED BY RECENT CONVECTION AND THE TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD BE LIMITED.  BUT...ORIENTATION OF THE TSTMS WITH RESPECT TO
THE WSWLY SHEAR VECTORS THROUGH 6KM DOES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY/TRAINING RAINFALL FROM AMITE COUNTY NEWD TO SIMPSON/SMITH
COUNTIES IN MS.  THE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ALSO WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SPLITTING CELLS WITH LEFT MOVING MEMBERS MOVING NWD INTO AREAS S/SE
OF KJAN.

..RACY.. 12/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

31558902 33188910 33638626 31898629 

31259091 32348989 32438916 31438920 31049030 

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