[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061820
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061820 
OKZ000-TXZ000-062015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2503
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX/SW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061820Z - 062015Z

A LINE OF CONVECTION FROM CHILDRESS SWD TO SNYDER SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX AND SW OK EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL WITH MARGINAL WIND
DAMAGE POSSIBLE. A WW MAY BE NEEDED SOON.

A FAST MOVING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH
WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
WAVE COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
CURRENTLY SHOWS THE NOSE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET ENTERING NCNTRL TX.
THIS IS ENHANCING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE LINE
AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY EWD INTO NCNTRL TX AND SW OK. AS THE LINE MOVES
EAST...WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL. IN
ADDITION...INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS AND STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL MAKE MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SEVERE WILL BE THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE SEVERE WEATHER COVERAGE FAIRLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 12/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

34809739 33799726 33089782 32959906 33450024 34410027
35129977 35329898 35169802 

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