[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061930 
TXZ000-062100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2504
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0130 PM CST MON DEC 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NORTH TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 909...

VALID 061930Z - 062100Z

STRONG CONVECTIVE LINE FROM VERNON TX SWD TO NEAR SJT WILL CONTINUE
TO ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS NORTH AND CNTRL TX THIS
AFTERNOON. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EAST OF WW 909 AND S0UTH OF WW
910 SOON.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE
TX HILL COUNTRY TO SOUTH OF THE WICHITA FALLS AREA. SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THIS AXIS ARE NEAR 60 F. AS THE LINE MOVES EWD INTO THE BETTER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...THE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL RESULT IN A
SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE LINE. THINNING
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE LINE.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SFC TEMPS WARM AND MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD REACH 500
TO 750 J/KG ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. THIS COMBINED WITH A FAST CELL
MOTION OF 40-45 KT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. IN
ADDITION...STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND
9,000 FEET SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 12/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

31149929 31579968 32779945 33289905 33399708 32599694
31709720 31239766 

WWWW