[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 061635
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061635 
TXZ000-061830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2502
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 AM CST MON DEC 06 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...W AND NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061635Z - 061830Z

DEVELOPING CONVECTION WEST OF MIDLAND WILL CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AND
A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND
NCNTRL TX LATE THIS MORNING. HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG A DRYLINE IN WEST TEXAS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. VERY STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FOCUSED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE FAST MOVING
TROUGH WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS W TX OVER THE NEXT 1 TO
2 HOURS. THIS WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPING CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS EWD
INTO THE LOW-ROLLING PLAINS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL
JET. THIS COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 80 KT AND
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED HAIL WITH
THE STRONGEST CELLS. MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS
LOW-LEVELS MOISTEN ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE FAST FORWARD CELL MOTION.
HOWEVER...THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE TO A STRONG
INVERSION LAYER BELOW 850 MB SHOWING UP ON THE 12Z SOUNDINGS.

..BROYLES.. 12/06/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

31120044 30970130 31390200 32060199 32790140 33180089
33370036 33539986 33419935 32749889 31879937 31489994 

WWWW