[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 011210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011210 
MEZ000-011715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2495
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 AM CST WED DEC 01 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ME

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 011210Z - 011715Z

MDT AND/OR POSSIBLY HEAVY WET SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN ME
THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS MORNING AMIDST HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN ME.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PORTRAYS FAST MOVING/COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING OVER LAKE ERIE VICINITY. AT 11Z...DEEPENING 992 MB SFC LOW
OVER LAKE ERIE PRECEDED BY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS CENTERED OVER
UPSTATE NY. AHEAD OF THIS CYCLONE...DPVA/UPPER JET ENHANCED UVVS
COMBINED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES ACROSS NRN ME...MAINLY
IN FORM OF SNOW THIS MORNING.

09Z RUC GUIDANCE/12Z CAR RAOB SUGGESTS LOW LEVEL PROFILES REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NW/NRN ME. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
WARMING OCCURRING ACROSS DOWNSTATE ME AS EVIDENT IN NWD RETREAT OF
32F SFC WET BULB ZERO LINE OVER PAST FEW HOURS. WITH LOW LEVELS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY COLD THROUGH THE MORNING...STRONG
UVVS COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE DENDRITIC PROFILES SUGGEST MDT/POSSIBLY
HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING IN
NRN ME...ALTHOUGH ENCROACHING WARM AIR/LOW SNOW TO LIQUID WATER
RATIOS WILL TEND TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS.

09Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP TYPE MAY CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN OR
A RAIN/SNOW MIX AFTER 18Z ACROSS ALL BUT EXTREME NRN ME /I.E. CAR
VICINITY/ OWING TO LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF ADVANCING
CYCLONE.

..GUYER.. 12/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC...
11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS
AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

47406898 46996776 46096839 45006986 44867035 45107099
45527067 45887035 46616989 

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