[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 031727
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031726 
MEZ000-032030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2496
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CST FRI DEC 03 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CENTRAL ME COAST

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 031726Z - 032030Z

MESOSCALE REGION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT THE SRN
THROUGH CENTRAL ME COASTAL AREAS THROUGH 21Z...WITH DIMINISHING
RATES THEREAFTER.

STRONG 500MB THERMAL TROUGH AXIS...WITH TEMPERATURES OF
-36C...CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS UPSTATE NY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE OFF THE SRN ME COAST BETWEEN 21-00Z. TWELVE
HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF 120M WERE NOTED AT CHH AND ALB WITH MORNING
RAOB DATA...IN ADDITION TO JET STREAK OF 70-80KT PASSING OVER LI AND
SRN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINATION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT REGION
OF JET AND PVA CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS SRN ME
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOW
AUGMENTING LARGE-SCALE LIFT CREATING A MESOSCALE REGION OF MOD/HVY
SNOWFALL. THE 12Z GYX SOUNDING INDICATED AN 850-500MB LAPSE RATE OF
6.4 C/KM...WHICH THE RUC STEEPENS TO 7.5 C/KM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
A COMBINATION OF ASCENT AND COLD ADVECTION WITH APPROACHING STRONG
THERMAL THROUGH. NARROW AND VERY INTENSE 35+DBZ REFLECTIVITY BAND
DEVELOPING FROM JUST SOUTH OF LEW TO RKD AND DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHTNING JUST OFF THE SRN ME COAST SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF
ELEVATED CAPE OR THE RELEASE OF CSI. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE
TO VERY LOCALIZED 1-2"/HR SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ARCTIC AIR MASS AND LOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER INTERIOR ME SHOULD
LIMIT THE HEAVY SNOW AREA TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES BEFORE FORCING
SHIFTS OFF THE MID ME COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SNOW TAPERS
OFF.

..BANACOS.. 12/03/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC...
11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS
AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

43137023 43377069 43697079 44027050 44436946 44586860
44496817 43996831 

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