[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 010559
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010559 
MIZ000-011000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2494
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CST TUE NOV 30 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MI

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 010559Z - 011000Z

OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS/SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI
OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 1 IN/HR FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT...NAMELY THROUGH 09Z ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF LOWER MI...AND
11Z ACROSS ERN LOWER MI EAST OF LAN/AMN.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITIONING
E/NE OVER IL/IN ATTM...WITH ATTENDANT 1000 MB SFC LOW CONTINUING TO
DEEPEN ACROSS NW OH AT 05Z. IN NW QUADRANT OF CYCLONE...DEFORMATION
BAND JUXTAPOSED WITH UPPER JET ENHANCED UVVS SPREADING EWD ACROSS
LOWER MI.

OVER PAST FEW HOURS...PRECIP TYPE HAS TRANSITIONED TO SNOW AS FAR
SOUTH AS BIV/GRR CORRIDOR. IN ACCORDANCE WITH PRECIP TYPE
ALGORITHMS...THIS TREND EXPECTED TO SPREAD S/E AS CYCLONE CONTINUES
TO ADVANCE NEWD AND COLDER AIR IS ENTRAINED ACROSS LOWER MI.

GIVEN ULTIMATE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...03Z RUC POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS -- IN CONJUNCTION WITH IR SATELLITE DERIVED CLOUD TOP
TRENDS -- SUGGEST FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER /650 MB AND
HIGHER/ AND NET UVVS MAY SUPPORT SNOW RATES APPROACHING 1 IN/HR FOR
A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. FURTHERMORE...DEFORMATION/MODEST MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO GENERAL SW-NE
ORIENTATION OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL.

..GUYER.. 12/01/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A 
SCHEDULED BASIS...FOUR TIMES A DAY...BETWEEN 05-06 UTC...
11-12 UTC...17-18 UTC...AND 23-00 UTC AS SIGNIFICANT SHORT
RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS UNFOLD.  THIS SCHEDULE WILL BE
USED FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 TO ALLOW PARTNERS
AND USERS TO BETTER ANTICIPATE THE TIMING OF SPC WINTER WEATHER
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS.

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

43748324 43148325 42448390 42008465 41968572 42448603
43118587 43808504 44048367 

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