[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301610
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301607 
NCZ000-VAZ000-MDZ000-301800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2149
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN VA...NERN NC...SRN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301607Z - 301800Z

CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER SRN VA IN ADVANCE OF TD
GASTON.  1630Z OUTLOOK WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK...AND AREA
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE CELLS WITH CG LIGHTNING DEVELOPING
OVER SRN VA TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TD
GASTON...WITHIN BAND OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH CENTRAL VA INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA. STRONGER DIURNAL
HEATING HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE DENSE CLOUDS
ATTENDING THE CIRCULATION CENTER...RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL
DESTABILIZATION WITH SBCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG.  LATEST VAD WIND
PROFILE FROM AKQ SHOW STRONG WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3-4 KM AGL THAT
VEER WITH HEIGHT...PROVIDING A VERTICAL SHEAR/HELICITY SUPPORTIVE OF
SMALL SUPERCELLS.  CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...POSSIBLY EXTENDING SWD INTO NERN NC...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES TO DEVELOP.

..WEISS.. 08/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RNK...

35567681 36347696 36727767 36727826 37187862 37847835
38437769 38417639 37557594 36557576 35817551 35367630 

WWWW