[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 300115
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300113 
NCZ000-SCZ000-300245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2148
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 796...

VALID 300113Z - 300245Z

MARGINAL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THROUGH REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
AND SPREAD NEWD ACROSS NERN NC.  HOWEVER...THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH SUCH THAT WW CAN BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITHOUT ADDITIONAL
ISSUANCE.  PARTIAL SPIRAL BAND NOW EVIDENT FROM OFFSHORE ONSLOW
COUNTY NWWD TOWARD JOHNSTON COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE FOCUS AWAY FROM CIRCULATION CORE...THROUGH AT LEAST 04Z. 
VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE OVER NERN QUADRANT OF CIRCULATION
OF GASTON -- I.E. 0-1 KM SRH 100-250 J/KG BASED ON MHX RAOB AND VWP
FROM RDU/MHX REGIONS.  MAIN AREA OF INTEREST REMAINS SFC TROUGH/WIND
SHIFT LINE AND PRESSURE FALL AXIS NEAR POB...LHZ...60 E DAN
LINE...PARTICULARLY IF ANY DISCRETE STORMS OR MINI-SUPERCELLS
EMBEDDED WITHIN SPIRAL BAND MOVE THROUGH THAT CORRIDOR.  THIS SHOULD
SERVE AS AXIS OF ANY REMAINING TORNADO PROBABILITIES.  MAIN NEGATIVE
FACTOR IS WEAKENING SFC-BASED INSTABILITY AND RESULTANT DECREASE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF DISCRETE CONVECTION ACROSS FAVORABLY SHEARED
SECTOR OF GASTON.

..EDWARDS.. 08/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...

33237865 34638017 36337828 34967676 

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