[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 301905
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301903 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-302100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2150
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM AND NW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 301903Z - 302100Z

ISOLD SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW TX AND
ERN NM THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

AS EVIDENT IN VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AMA AND FDR WSR-88D
DATA...OUTFLOW FROM REMNANT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS WRN OK/TX
PANHANDLES CONTINUES TO PROGRESS WWD THROUGH NW TX/TX PANHANDLE
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE SRN/ERN PERIPHERY MOVING SLOWLY SWD
ACROSS FAR N TX. COMBINED WITH MODERATE HEATING/WEAK
INHIBITION...ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED REMAINDER OF
AFTERNOON.

MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS/18Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXISTS IN NON-OVERTURNED AIRMASS OF PORTIONS OF NW
TX/FAR ERN NM...WITH HIGHEST INSTABILITY INVOF CAP ROCK REGION OF NW
TX WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE.

GIVEN WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR /20 KTS OR LESS/...PULSE-TYPE SEVERE
EPISODES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS. GIVEN ANTICIPATED ISOLD
NATURE OF SEVERE HAZARDS...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

..GUYER.. 08/30/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

36610498 36700330 36650199 35580192 34820118 34099967
33049951 32369989 31840035 32050203 32930411 34960497 

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