[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 280133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280131 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-280230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2137
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0831 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS/NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 792...793...

VALID 280131Z - 280230Z

POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST PAST 02Z...HOWEVER OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO
BE DIMINISHING. A REPLACEMENT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM.

TSTMS HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS ACROSS NRN MO INTO NERN KS ALONG WEAK COLD FRONT SAGGING SWD
ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z SGF SOUNDING AND CURRENT RUC DIAGNOSTIC
FIELDS INDICATE THAT INFLOW AIRMASS ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO REMAINS
MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS /ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS/ IS EXPECTED TO
EXIST PAST 02Z GIVEN MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS NRN FRINGES OF
INSTABILITY AXIS. EWD EXTENT OF THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY BE NW-SE
ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT/
WHICH EXTENDS FROM N OR NE OF SZL TO S OF TBN.

GREATER POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS SAME
AREA OWING TO: 1) SLOW FRONTAL MOTION...2) VERY MOIST INFLOW
AIRMASS... AND 3) POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CELLS AND/OR BACK-BUILDING
STORM DEVELOPMENT.

..MEAD.. 08/28/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...

39309650 40969244 38669246 37919483 37889638 

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