[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 272156
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272154 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-272330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2136
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0454 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL KS SWWD INTO SWRN OK/NWRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 272154Z - 272330Z

TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG COLD
FRONT FROM JUST E ICT SWWD TO W OF END TO NEAR LTS. PRE-FRONTAL
AIRMASS IS HOT AND MOIST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 7-7.5 C/KM...ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCE OVER ERN NM/WRN TX WHICH IS PRECEEDING STRONGER SYSTEM
OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ALONG BOUNDARY OVER
THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THOUGH REGIONAL PROFILERS INDICATE RELATIVELY
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR....WELL MIXED-BOUNDARY LAYER...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND AVAILABILITY OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ALL SUGGEST STRONG DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

..MEAD.. 08/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...LUB...

37419763 38049685 37779604 33759907 33619980 34320005 

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