[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 272111
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272110 
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-272315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2135
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0410 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA/FAR NE MO INTO NW IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 272110Z - 272315Z

AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST FROM SCNTRL/SE IA...FAR NE
MO...AND PERHAPS NW IL REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRIMARY
HAZARD EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL.

SYNOPTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO...WHILE
AIRMASS ACROSS FAR NE MO/NW IL HAS BEEN SLOW TO RECOVER IN WAKE OF
MORNING MCS. TSTM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO INCREASE REMAINDER OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING INVOF FRONTAL ZONE AS BACKGROUND FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN BASED ABOVE SURFACE OWING TO
REMNANT COLD POOL FROM MORNING MCS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BASED
CINH. MUCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT CLOUD BEARING SHEAR
/SUPPORTED BY 30 KT MID LEVEL FLOW/ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL
WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS. AIRMASS RECOVERY INTO NW IL WILL BE AIDED
BY INCREASING SWLY LLJ THIS EVENING. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

..GUYER.. 08/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

40669385 41119393 41649308 42149115 41978982 41478897
40688910 39839082 39869173 40009218 40289263 

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