[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271741
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271739 
MIZ000-271945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2132
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1239 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 271739Z - 271945Z

TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS SRN HALF OF
LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE WW.

ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE APPEARS MEAGER AMIDST UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY PORTRAYS ROUGHLY
NE-SW ORIENTED MDT CU ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT. MODIFIED 15Z RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS NEGLIGIBLE
CINH ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF LOWER MI...WITH MLCAPE AS HIGH AS
1500-2000 J/KG PER 17Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. SCT TSTMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH ATTENDANT
SEVERE THREAT.

GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY ON FRINGE OF STRONGER SWLY MID LEVEL
FLOW...DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY TO BE PRIMARY HAZARD. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.

..GUYER.. 08/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...

43638623 43808499 43858336 43938270 43168252 42308308
42068361 41938477 41908579 41948619 42548601 

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