[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 271809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271807 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-272000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2133
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...MO...WRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 791...

VALID 271807Z - 272000Z

DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS WW 791 CONTINUES BELOW SEVERE LEVELS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS STORMS REMAIN IN RATHER WARM AND WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT THUS LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND HAIL POTENTIAL.
STRONGER INSTABILITY HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN MO
AND ERN KS WHERE LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DATA WAS SHOWING MLCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 2500 J/KG. SATELLITE LOOP AND SFC TEMPERATURE
ANALYSIS REVEAL A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESE TO WNW
ACROSS CNTRL MO. MEANWHILE...THE COLD FRONT WAS MAKING ONLY SLOW
SEWD PROGRESS ACROSS NERN KS AND NWRN MO.

WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING CAP OCCURRING NEAR THE
OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION ACROSS NWRN MO...AND INTENSE SURFACE
HEATING ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER KS...ADDITIONAL AND
POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR IN THESE AREAS
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS TO ABOUT
35-40KT IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. IT
APPEARS THAT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LATER
TODAY AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

..CARBIN.. 08/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

37749694 39339669 40629349 39959059 38848938 38378976
37849072 37459295 36729441 

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