[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 270215
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270213 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-270315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0913 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI / CNTRL AND ERN IA AND NRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 788...

VALID 270213Z - 270315Z

A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR TO REPLACE EXPIRING
TORNADO WATCH 788.

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS HAVE EVOLVED FROM MORE DISCRETE
ELEMENTS INTO CLUSTERS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...LIKELY AS A RESULT
OF EXPANDING/MERGING COLD POOLS. STRENGTHENING CAP ACROSS THE
DOWNSTREAM WARM SECTOR IN COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASED OUTFLOW
DOMINANCE OF ONGOING STORMS SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BEING OBSERVED ON THE DVN VWP...IT APPEARS THAT THE
STRENGTHENING CAP AND INCREASED COLD POOL PRODUCTION WILL TEND TO
DISCOURAGE TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL.

..MEAD.. 08/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...

40119557 43899115 43878761 40039227 

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