[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 270047
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270045 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-270215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2123
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MN/SWRN WI SWWD INTO SERN NEB/NWRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 788...

VALID 270045Z - 270215Z

IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES EXISTS THIS EVENING WITH MOST INTENSE STORMS.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK COLD FRONT/PRESSURE TROUGH FROM N
OF LSE SWWD TO E-CNTRL NEB /NEAR OMA/ AND THEN SWD INTO NERN KS. AN
ADDITIONAL MORE SUBTLE BOUNDARY IS ALSO PRESENT FROM NW OF DSM EWD
INTO E-CNTRL IA N OF DVN. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL IA ALONG/JUST E OF PRIMARY
SYNOPTIC FRONT. DOMINANT STORM REMAINS LARGE SUPERCELL OVER TAYLOR
COUNTY IA WHILE OTHER SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE CURRENTLY BEING
OBSERVED N/NW OF DSM. LOCAL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
THE MAINTENENCE OF THESE SUPERCELLS /PER 00Z DVN SOUNDING/ WITH
MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40-45KTS.
MOREOVER...LOCALLY BACKED WINDS INVOF AFOREMENTIONED W-E BOUNDARY IS
RESULTING IN AN AXIS OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /I.E. 0-1KM SRH
VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2/ ALONG AND JUST TO THE N OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

GIVEN THE FAVORABLY LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL IA...IT
APPEARS THAT GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST
WITH THOSE STORMS THAT CAN: 1) AVOID DISRUPTIVE INTERACTIONS WITH
INCREASINGLY NUMEROUS STORMS AND/OR 2) INTERACT FAVORABLY WITH
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG SECONDARY BOUNDARY.
EXPECT ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z AS
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION PROGRESSIVELY INCREASES ACROSS INSTABILITY
AXIS.

..MEAD.. 08/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

43929270 43908867 39939399 39969779 

WWWW