[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 270455
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270453 
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-270630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 270453Z - 270630Z

DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

QUASI-LINEAR MCS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES HAS EVOLVED FROM
CNTRL WI SWD ACROSS ERN IA INTO NRN MO. WHILE MAJORITY OF MCS WILL
REMAIN IN WW 789 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BOWING SEGMENT OVER
JACKSON COUNTY IA/JO DAVIESS COUNTY IL WILL MOVE OUT OF WW WITHIN
THE HOUR AND APPROACH THE CHICAGO METRO AREA BY AROUND 0630Z. 

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS NRN IL
REMAINS MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
HOWEVER...INSPECTION OF PLAN VIEW RUC DIAGNOSTICS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN INCREASING CAP ACROSS AXIS OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY. THUS...PRIMARY QUESTION IS WHETHER STRONG CONVECTION
CAN BE MAINTAINED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF GUST FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BOW GIVEN THE INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND IF IT APPEARS
THAT ONGOING STORMS CAN MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY...AN ADDITIONAL WW
MAY BE REQUIRED TO ACCOMMODATE THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

..MEAD.. 08/27/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...

42148903 42668838 42718763 42058706 41338738 40778775
40978891 41398995 

WWWW