[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250714 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-250745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 780...

VALID 250714Z - 250745Z

WW 780 WILL EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 08Z.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED IN NERN MO...NORTH OF A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDED FROM NRN KS EWD INTO CENTRAL MO. VAD
WIND PROFILES IN THE AREA INDICATED THAT A 35 KT LOW LEVEL JET WAS
PROVIDING LIFT FOR CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR SPREADING IN
FROM THE SW...AND THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
THE STORM UPDRAFT BASES ARE NEAR 850 MB...WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY
WINDS ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION.  MUCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND
THE DEEP SWLY FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ELEVATED BOWING
STRUCTURES...BUT THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD INHIBIT STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. SINCE THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED...NO ADDITIONAL WW ARE ANTICIPATED.

..IMY.. 08/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...

39329259 39669481 40299519 40579503 40669338 40509230