[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250646
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250644 
IAZ000-NEZ000-250815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0144 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 250644Z - 250815Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN NEB...THOUGH
ATTM...THREAT EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR WW.

A STRONG/SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED 35 W EAR EWD AT 30-35 KT THROUGH S
CENTRAL NEB. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED AT THE LEADING EDGE OF SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT EXTENDED WWD INTO NERN CO. MECHANISM FOR LIFT IS NOT
TOTALLY CLEAR...THOUGH THERMAL TROUGH ALOFT SPREADING EWD INTO THE
PLAINS STATES APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING THE MAIN LIFT FOR CONVECTION. 


EVEN THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT STORMS ARE ROOTED AROUND
800 MB...STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN AROUND 2500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE. STORMS ARE LIKELY NOT REALIZING SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 1-2
KM...THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR ABOVE THE CAP APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET IS LOCATED FURTHER EAST FROM NRN MO NEWD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT STRONG STORMS TO REMAIN VERY
ISOLATED AND UNLESS COVERAGE INCREASES MORE THAN CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

..IMY.. 08/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

40259897 40849975 41489979 42159838 42369635 40919668
40299821 

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