[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250449
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250447 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-250645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...SERN NEB AND NRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 780...

VALID 250447Z - 250645Z

THREAT FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NEXT 2-3 HOURS ACROSS NERN KS...SE NEB AND
NRN MO WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING NEWD WITH TIME.

THIS EVENING A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SERN KS NWWD INTO CNTRL
KS. A SWLY 30-40 KT NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET IS ENHANCING ISENTROPIC
LIFT N OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS NERN KS...NRN MO AND SERN NEB. THE
PRIMARY AREA OF DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY N OF
INTERSTATE 70. CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT S OF THIS LINE
IS LOWER. HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL FOR SWD DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST IF
THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SETTLE SWD.

STORMS ARE ELEVATED AND LIKELY NOT REALIZING THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR BELOW 1 KM. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR FROM 1 TO 6 KM IS STILL
SUFFICIENT FOR STORM TO TAKE ON OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...
WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL.

..DIAL.. 08/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

38799271 38759471 38729701 39669728 40459703 40559489
40509265 39709255 

WWWW