[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 250343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250341 
NEZ000-250545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 250341Z - 250545Z

THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD TOWARD
CNTRL NEB NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

LATE THIS EVENING A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NEAR AINSWORTH
IN N CNTRL NEB SWWD TO NEAR IMPERIAL IN SW NEB IS MOVING EWD AT
ABOUT 30 KT. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS BOUNDARY...THE ATMOSPHERE IS A
LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE WITH RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW MODERATELY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500
J/KG. DESPITE INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITH THE ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING...CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE EWD MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE TO GENERATE NEW
STORMS. SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR AS THE ACTIVITY INTERCEPTS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER INSTABILITY. MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WHICH MAY ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS INCREASING SURFACE BASED
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER.

..DIAL.. 08/25/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

40410172 41570024 42869916 41519783 40419964 

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