[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 242228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242226 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-250100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2099
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL AND NERN KS INTO EXTREME SERN NEB AND NW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 242226Z - 250100Z

PORTIONS OF N CNTRL AND NE KS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP FARTHER NE INTO NE KS...SERN NEB AND NRN MO...BUT PROBABLY A
LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING. A WW MIGHT BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS.

EARLY THIS EVENING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SERN KS NWWD TO
A WEAK SURFACE LOW JUST E OF GREAT BEND. THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND S
OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 3000 TO
3500 J/KG. CUMULUS HAS BEEN INCREASING IN THE ZONE OF WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND THE CAP HAS WEAKENED AS
TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND 90F. STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF
THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF N CNTRL KS NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE 0-6
KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS... ESPECIALLY
GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT. LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS
ALSO ENHANCED JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE WEAK LOW IN CNTRL
KS WHERE THE SURFACE FLOW IS BACKED TO SELY. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE IF STORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP BEFORE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO DECOUPLE.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FARTHER NE INTO NERN KS...SE
NEB AND NRN MO AS THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND ENHANCES
LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION N OF THE BOUNDARY. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..DIAL.. 08/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

37939595 38439698 38369851 38729902 39409847 40309633
40349468 39559426 38669480 38189521 

WWWW