[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241814
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241813 
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-242015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2098
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...IL...WRN IND...SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241813Z - 242015Z

HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS NEW CELLS DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD ACROSS IL AND NWRN IND. IN
ADDITION...A LINEAR MCS WILL ALSO HAVE A SEVERE THREAT ACROSS SRN
MO. A WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR SRN MO AND SW IL.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MOIST AXIS ACROSS SERN MO INTO SRN IL WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. SFC HEATING IS RESULTING IN
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS SRN MO AND THE SRN HALF OF IL.
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...FUELING A LINEAR MCS ACROSS
SRN MO. A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS LOCATED FROM NE IL
EXTENDING SWWD INTO SERN MO. THIS WILL BE A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VAD WIND PROFILERS IN
NERN IL SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF 0-6 SHEAR WHICH EXTENDS SWWD INTO SRN
MO. IN ADDITION...SFC WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BACKED TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS ERN IL AND SERN MO. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH THIS THREAT BEING ENHANCED AS A MID-LEVEL
JET MAX OF 40 KT PUNCHES EWD OUT OF NERN MO INTO CNTRL IL OVER THE
NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. THE INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
RESULT IN A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 08/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...SGF...

36619125 36889307 37629304 38319120 39378970 40488877
41658862 42048839 42108745 41628669 40558666 38788762
37578912 

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