[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 241709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241708 
MOZ000-ILZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-241915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO...FAR SE KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 241708Z - 241915Z

A HAIL THREAT AND MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS SRN
MO AND FAR SE KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS CONVECTION MOVES SWD
INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS SRN MO WITH
DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. THIS IS YIELDING
STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. THIS
WILL FUEL THE CONVECTION AS IT TRACKS SWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU
THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL JET OF 40 KT
ACROSS NE KS AND THIS COMBINED WITH SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS CREATING
A STRONGLY VEERED WIND PROFILE BELOW 700 MB RESULTING IN MODERATE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IN ADDITION...A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES IS PRESENT ACROSS NRN OK...SRN KS AND CNTRL MO. THE SHEAR AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS. IN ADDITION...VERY MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE LINE...MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR
MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE
SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES.. 08/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

38729173 37909506 37669521 36739486 36579399 36939204
37529009 38309020 38789084 

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