[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240804
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240802 
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-241000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2096
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB...NE KS...SRN IA...NRN MO

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...HEAVY RAIN 

VALID 240802Z - 241000Z

LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLIES CONTINUES SLOW MIGRATION THROUGH THE LOWER/MID MISSOURI
INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME JUST AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR INCREASING/
INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PARTICULARLY NEAR TIGHTER 850
MB THERMAL GRADIENT SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE MISSOURI/
IOWA BORDER.  BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS
UPSTREAM ALONG LOW/MID-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH
AXIS.  OTHER STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ABOVE COLD POOL 
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...IN WAKE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO COOLER/MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CENTRAL/
EASTERN MISSOURI.

THROUGH 12Z...MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY TO
BECOME FOCUSED FROM THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH MO
AND OMAHA NEB...INTO AREAS OF IOWA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DES MOINES. 
FORCING ON NOSE OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT
EVOLUTION/ORGANIZATION OF ANOTHER LARGE CONVECTIVE  CLUSTER.  GIVEN
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON EDGE OF CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...CAPE WILL REMAIN LARGE AS INFLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR
MASS CONTINUES.  WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER UP TO 2 INCHES...INTENSE
UPDRAFTS WILL MAINTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY
BECOME EXCESSIVE IN SLOW MOVING/TRAINING CONVECTION.

..KERR.. 08/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

40849722 41149596 41559540 41569390 41019317 40399326
40289367 39799472 39879559 39989623 40119727 40349757 

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