[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 240433
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240432 
NDZ000-240600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2095
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 778...

VALID 240432Z - 240600Z

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT
LEAST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF WW 778.

THIS EVENING A LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING EWD THROUGH E CNTRL ND AT
AROUND 30 KT. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEWD
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ACTIVITY ANOTHER 2-3 HOURS. VERY STRONG LOW-MID
LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING BOWS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. STORMS OVER THE SRN HALF OF
THE LINE ARE CLOSER TO BEING SURFACE BASED AND POSE THE GREATER
THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE. SOME DECREASE IN OVERALL INTENSITY MAY OCCUR
AFTER ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE MN BORDER
WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE MARGINAL.

..DIAL.. 08/24/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

46539937 47689871 48629857 48779775 46389769 

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