[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 232236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232234 
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-240030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2089
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0534 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB/ERN KS/WRN AND SW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 232234Z - 240030Z

PARTS OF ERN NEB/ERN KS AND WRN MO BEING MONITORED FOR A TORNADO
WATCH.

COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER VORT NOW MOVING E
ACROSS NRN MO ARCS FROM SW MO /NEAR SGF/ NNW ACROSS ERN KS INTO SE
NEB /W OF LNK/.  COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING...RICH MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY /AVERAGE SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/ AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS BOOSTED MEAN MLCAPE TO AOA 2500 J/KG ALONG
AND W OF BOUNDARY.

WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIKELY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE IN
WAKE OF MO UPPER VORT...BUILDING CU IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NE AND
E CNTRL KS SUPPORT LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS SHOWING
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE OVER REGION.  AREA PROFILER
AND VWP DATA SHOW AMPLE /25-30 KT/ DEEP SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.
GIVEN MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND ENHANCED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
INVOF STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO EXIST FOR
TORNADOES IF ANY SUSTAINED STORMS DID INDEED FORM IN RESPONSE TO
CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY.  NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL
JET MAY ALSO SUPPORT INCREASED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER REGION LATER
THIS EVENING.

..CORFIDI.. 08/23/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

36939391 36979492 37329578 37599625 38529709 39739755
41189771 41549659 39549504 38329373 37329310 

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